Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0a2…b58e sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$287 (+56%) realized +$287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$384
other 8% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +47.9% +33.8% 38% 38% +55.6%
≤30d 8 +47.9% +33.8% 38% 38% +55.6%
≤90d 8 +47.9% +33.8% 38% 38% +55.6%
all 8 +47.9% +33.8% 38% 38% +55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.8% 38% +55.6%
10% +21.0% 38% +40.7%
15% +9.3% 38% +27.1%
20% -1.4% 38% +14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$37 · ×4.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $28 +$82 +291%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $221 +$262 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $39 +$183 +473%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $39 −$38 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 12¢ $111 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $28 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $37 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $32 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $38 14h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $221 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $221 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $39 35h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $39 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records