Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf09b…1c7f other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-9%) realized −$119 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$171
sports 8% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -27.2% -34.1% 40% 30% -21.5%
≤30d 10 -27.2% -34.1% 40% 30% -21.5%
≤90d 10 -27.2% -34.1% 40% 30% -21.5%
all 10 -27.2% -34.1% 40% 30% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 30% -21.5%
10% -40.4% 30% -29.0%
15% -46.2% 30% -35.8%
20% -51.5% 20% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$38 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $333 $338 +$5 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $354 −$29 -8%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $95 +$59 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $218 −$123 -56%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $181 +$17 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $114 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 9h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 53¢ $94 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $133 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 37h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 37h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $95 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $95 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $218 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $180 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.76 · official $357.76 (match) · 35 history records