Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F0 0xf095…4965 other 58 markets active 22h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$5
other 21% −$4
politics 10% +$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.0% -13.1% 18% 9% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.5% 30% 10% -9.0%
≤90d 20 -1.0% -10.5% 30% 10% -9.0%
all 58 +0.0% -9.5% 41% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 10% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage452d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $17 +$4 +22%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $37 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 9–16? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $1 $0 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $1 +$1 +40%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 06 $8 $0 -3%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 29 $15 $0 -2%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $34 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $37 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records