Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf08d…d8b9 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+48%) realized +$53 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$5
crypto 35% −$8
other 22% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+73.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +285.3% +248.6% 80% 80% +140.6%
≤30d 5 +285.3% +248.6% 80% 80% +140.6%
≤90d 5 +285.3% +248.6% 80% 80% +140.6%
all 13 +91.2% +73.0% 54% 54% +45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.0% 54% +45.4%
10% +56.4% 46% +31.5%
15% +41.3% 38% +18.8%
20% +27.5% 38% +7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +166% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +211% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage119d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$61 +1194%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $5 +$12 +226%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$5 +33%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 22 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Feb 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 22 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $5 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff SELL PARIVISION 12¢ $0 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $17 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 119d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff SELL PARIVISION 12¢ $8 119d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff BUY PARIVISION 14¢ $10 119d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 8¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 119d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 0¢ $0 119d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 3¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.95 · official $11.95 (match) · 29 history records