Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F0 0xf08b…38e5 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+23%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤30d 14 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤90d 14 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 50% -2.3%
all 14 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 50% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 50% -2.3%
10% -34.1% 36% -11.6%
15% -40.5% 21% -20.2%
20% -46.3% 14% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -59%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records