Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf088…d79e crypto 35 markets active 7d ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$116 (-6%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$207
other 3% −$8
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 35 -35.2% -41.4% 31% 29% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 29% -21.5%
10% -47.0% 23% -29.0%
15% -52.1% 17% -35.9%
20% -56.8% 14% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage133d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 12 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 12 $55 −$35 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 12 $89 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 12 $26 −$15 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 12 $63 −$27 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 12 $35 −$25 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 12 $20 +$26 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 03 $11 −$11 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 03 $58 −$27 -46%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 03 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 03 $65 +$17 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 03 $146 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 03 $51 −$13 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 03 $37 −$3 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 03 $102 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 03 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 03 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 03 $77 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 03 $42 −$36 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 03 $14 +$13 +95%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 03 $7 +$7 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 03 $447 −$196 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 03 $55 −$15 -27%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 03 $118 +$92 +78%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 03 $89 +$29 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 03 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 03 $39 +$67 +170%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $29 +$10 +36%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $7 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $7 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $6 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $36 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $7 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $40 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $19 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $19 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $27 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $32 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $24 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $24 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $42 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records