Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf086…d3f2 other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 23% −$22
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$9
crypto 7% −$3
world 5% −$4
economics 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage130d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $208 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $211 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $780 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $244 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $174 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $401 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 25m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 3h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 5h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 6h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 7h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $46 13h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $46 15h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 16h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 17h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 22h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 23h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 24h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 26h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 31h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 33h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 34h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 37h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 41h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 46h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1353 history records