Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F0 0xf085…50f2 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$342 (-44%) realized −$329 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$244
7 days−$342
14 days−$470
30 days−$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-73.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -72.7%
≤30d 5 -70.4% -73.3% 20% 20% -78.4%
≤90d 5 -70.4% -73.3% 20% 20% -78.4%
all 5 -70.4% -73.3% 20% 20% -78.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.3% 20% -78.4%
10% -75.8% 20% -80.5%
15% -78.2% 20% -82.4%
20% -80.3% 0% -84.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$129 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage8d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $146 $133 −$13 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $148 −$145 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $131 −$128 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $149 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $147 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $148 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 35¢ $131 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.89 · official $132.89 (match) · 8 history records