Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F0 0xf083…28b3 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$11 (-6%) realized −$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-16.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-7.3%	-16.1%	50%	50%	-32.4%
≤30d	2	-7.3%	-16.1%	50%	50%	-32.4%
≤90d	2	-7.3%	-16.1%	50%	50%	-32.4%
all	2	-7.3%	-16.1%	50%	50%	-32.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.1%	50%	-32.4%
10%	-24.1%	0%	-38.9%
15%	-31.5%	0%	-44.8%
20%	-38.2%	0%	-50.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$35 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.1 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage

Net worth$72

Realized−$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage58d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$72	$72	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Jun 18	$105	−$35	-33%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante	Jun 16	$18	+$3	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$74	1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL No	42¢	$70	1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	63¢	$105	2d
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante	BUY KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas	84¢	$18	58d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.54 · official $71.54 (match) · 5 history records