Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F0 0xf07c…6dea sports 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%51W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$8
crypto 23% −$5
other 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -9.9% -18.5% 62% 51% -5.3%
≤30d 84 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 50% -8.0%
≤90d 84 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 50% -8.0%
all 84 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 50% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 50% -8.0%
10% -24.7% 35% -16.8%
15% -32.0% 15% -24.9%
20% -38.7% 12% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses51 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 $0 +47%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -42%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +32%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $1 3m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 16¢ $0 16m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $5 20h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 95¢ $2 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 28h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 31h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 43h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $3 44h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 75¢ $2 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 33¢ $1 45h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $2 45h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 74¢ $2 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 45h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $6 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $10 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 176 history records