Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf07b…0518 other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$407 (+29%) realized +$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$244
crypto 33% +$231
world 22% +$24
other 10% −$106
sports 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +31.3% +18.8% 33% 33% +30.2%
≤30d 18 +31.3% +18.8% 33% 33% +30.2%
≤90d 18 +31.3% +18.8% 33% 33% +30.2%
all 30 +12.9% +2.2% 43% 40% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 40% +17.4%
10% -7.6% 30% +6.2%
15% -16.5% 30% -4.1%
20% -24.7% 27% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$9 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage590d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024? No 68¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$17 +206%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -58%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +712%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +104%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum above $3,000 on November 22? Nov 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned? Nov 13 $14 −$1 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Nov 13 $58 +$11 +19%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Nov 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? Nov 11 $215 +$112 +52%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Nov 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Nov 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? Nov 11 $220 +$147 +67%
Trump's November 26 sentencing pushed back? Nov 10 $50 +$8 +17%
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024? Nov 09 $105 −$105 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Nov 09 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $412 +$237 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $25 10m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 16h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.04 · official $7.04 (match) · 81 history records