Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf072…467a sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,489 (+6%) realized +$14,897 · open −$11,408
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,316per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$310est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 192d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$8,871
sports 31% +$7,437
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +61.4% +46.0% 69% 69% +9.0%
≤30d 18 +61.1% +45.8% 67% 67% +9.2%
≤90d 18 +61.1% +45.8% 67% 67% +9.2%
all 21 +43.6% +29.9% 62% 62% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.9% 62% +9.1%
10% ← realistic here +17.5% 57% -1.4%
15% +6.1% 57% -10.9%
20% -4.3% 48% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,321) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +76% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,155 vs −$2,256 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$14,897
Unrealized−$11,408
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$310
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage192d
Avg bet$2,316
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 31¢ $3,358 $5 −$3,353 (-100%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ $4,564 $5 −$4,559 (-100%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 47¢ $2,500 $3 −$2,497 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 34¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 Jun 29 $1,321 +$3,648 +276%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Ad Jun 29 $1,480 +$1,639 +111%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $7,039 +$3,177 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $16,913 +$14,522 +86%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $8,197 −$8,000 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $9,424 −$8,719 -92%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $434 +$156 +36%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $761 −$630 -83%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $700 +$1,584 +226%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $508 +$578 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $221 +$499 +226%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $607 +$376 +62%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $338 +$491 +145%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $265 −$262 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $308 −$300 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $852 +$1,169 +137%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $123 +$171 +139%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $155 −$33 -21%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $99 +$11 +11%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $100 −$96 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $156 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,283 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,621 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 15¢ $410 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $470 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $509 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $509 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Germany leading at halftime BUY 23¢ $500 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $2,030 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1,020 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $2,031 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10,215 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $3,000 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY 26¢ $477 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Ad BUY 47¢ $1,480 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $4,039 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY 26¢ $844 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $31,435 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $16,913 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $8,197 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $667 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $8,167 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.84 · official $503.62 · 67 history records