Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf06e…ce86 other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 141L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$4
politics 28% −$12
sports 22% −$17
crypto 7% −$3
economics 4% −$3
culture 4% −$3
world 4% −$3
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 87 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 163 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage158d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $115 −$2 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 03 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $760 +$2 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 01 $45 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $411 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $135 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $358 −$2 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $247 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $61 13d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $54 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $55 32d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $55 32d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 42d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 43d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 43d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 43d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $51 43d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $52 43d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 93¢ $60 43d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 94¢ $61 44d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 91¢ $54 44d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $55 44d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 44d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 44d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 95¢ $64 44d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $65 44d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $50 44d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $50 45d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $65 45d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $65 45d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 45d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 45d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $46 45d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $46 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.67 · official $46.67 (match) · 752 history records