Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf06d…44df sports 985 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 237d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,254 (-3%) realized −$3,194 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate70%670W / 287L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$54
14 days+$58
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$2,229
other 43% −$975
world 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$9
economics 0% −$14
tech 0% +$4
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% −$9
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 47% -8.9%
≤30d 123 -5.4% -14.4% 67% 49% -9.1%
≤90d 471 -5.1% -14.2% 73% 34% -10.6%
all 957 -5.3% -14.4% 70% 38% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 38% -11.8%
10% -22.6% 26% -20.2%
15% -30.0% 18% -27.9%
20% -36.9% 11% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$37 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$3,194
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses670 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions25
Markets (closed)957 / 985
History coverage237d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 29¢ $80 $29 −$51 (-64%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 58¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 51¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-35%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 22¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+310%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +59%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1 +$1 +135%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +128%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $1 +$1 +48%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,376 +$12 +0%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1 −$1 -63%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1 +$1 +144%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $1 $0 -39%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $2 +$2 +73%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $2 −$2 -82%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026- Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $673 +$19 +3%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $485 +$10 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,497 +$2 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $998 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,979 +$14 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $33 0m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $9 23m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 26m
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 26m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 1h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 77¢ $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 65¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 97¢ $2 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 34¢ $1 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ $1 12h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 74¢ $1 12h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 66¢ $1 12h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 54¢ $1 12h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 28¢ $1 12h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ $1 12h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $1 12h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $2 12h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $2 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,388 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $389 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $144 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.13 · official $162.14 · 3500 history records