Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf06b…8fda crypto 835 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-2%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate79%656W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$54
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$226
weather 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 206 -4.9% -13.9% 64% 28% -15.1%
≤90d 834 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 12% -11.7%
all 834 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 12% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 12% -11.7%
10% -21.9% 7% -20.1%
15% -29.5% 5% -27.9%
20% -36.4% 3% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses656 / 178
Open positions1
Markets (closed)834 / 835
History coverage90d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 834 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 63¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $1.88 · 2286 history records