Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf064…54a4 sports 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$174 (-1%) realized −$172 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%116W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$69
14 days+$109
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$196
other 38% −$209
economics 3% −$172
politics 1% −$80
world 1% +$20
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.4% -7.3% 72% 72% -5.5%
≤30d 43 +5.7% -4.4% 70% 70% -0.4%
≤90d 151 -15.3% -23.4% 56% 54% -18.9%
all 188 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 60% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 60% -11.1%
10% -21.4% 53% -19.6%
15% -29.0% 45% -27.4%
20% -36.0% 26% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$56 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$728
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses116 / 72
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions6
Markets (closed)188 / 194
History coverage247d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $236 $236 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $231 $230 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $71 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $76 +$24 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $79 +$21 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $79 −$78 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $79 +$21 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $69 +$31 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $57 −$56 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $77 −$76 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $81 +$19 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $79 +$21 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $72 +$28 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$81 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $35 +$9 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 12 $36 +$14 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $57 +$43 +76%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $35 +$15 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $26 +$24 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $34 −$34 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $139 +$61 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $65 +$35 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $33 +$17 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $79 +$11 +14%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $74 +$16 +22%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 +$25 +97%
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $38 −$38 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $53 −$52 -99%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $69 +$31 +46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $28 +$21 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $25 +$25 +97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 05 $74 +$26 +36%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 05 $135 +$65 +48%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $70 −$51 -73%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $75 +$25 +34%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $107 +$50 +47%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $73 +$27 +38%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $107 +$42 +39%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $110 +$98 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $79 −$78 -98%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5 May 10 $57 +$43 +76%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $101 +$53 +52%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $50 −$49 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $70 −$69 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $45 +$55 +124%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 08 $63 +$36 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $72 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $77 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $79 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $79 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $79 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $79 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $57 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $69 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $35 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $81 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $72 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $79 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $70 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $35 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $90 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $65 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $57 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $728.00 · official $728.00 (match) · 408 history records