Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf061…f3aa other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$9
other 5% −$7
crypto 4% −$29
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$8
economics 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +15.4% +4.5% 50% 50% +5.5%
≤30d 10 +15.4% +4.5% 50% 50% +5.5%
≤90d 10 +15.4% +4.5% 50% 50% +5.5%
all 44 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 32% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 32% -10.7%
10% -34.6% 27% -19.2%
15% -40.9% 20% -27.0%
20% -46.7% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)44 / 67
History coverage551d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+71%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-90%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Yes 98¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5? Feb 27 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? Dec 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in November? Dec 29 $1 $0 +25%
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? Dec 29 $5 $0 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 29 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Solana dip to $140 in November? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Nov 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 28-November 3? Nov 07 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August? Sep 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August? Sep 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Singapo Sep 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Udachne by August 31? Sep 23 $1 $0 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112K August 4–10? Sep 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? Jul 26 $1 $0 +45%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Zohran Mamdani? Jun 27 $1 $0 +30%
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday? May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Apr 08 $1 $0 +7%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2025? Apr 08 $0 $0 +1%
Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Apr 08 $0 $0 +1%
Will Moritz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 08 $0 $0 -89%
Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu in 2024? Apr 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'DOTA 2' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? Apr 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Olexandr Bortnyk win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Apr 08 $0 $0 -100%
<180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? Dec 24 $0 $0 -100%
Kings vs. Devils Dec 12 $580 $0 +0%
Rams vs. 49ers Dec 11 $1,000 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Pelicans Dec 11 $256 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $1 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 17h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.35 · official $54.36 (match) · 114 history records