Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf060…070e other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 32L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$4
world 32% −$5
politics 15% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 27% 9% -10.0%
≤90d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 37% 5% -10.0%
all 62 +0.5% -9.0% 48% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage478d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $88 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $4 $0 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +11%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $7 −$1 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $104 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $45 −$3 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 20 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $68 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 10 $7 +$2 +37%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $1 $0 +7%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Trump x Elon talk by Monday? Jun 09 $9 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 31 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 06 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $35 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $10 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $13 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $31 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $31 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $7 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $4 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $33 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $11 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $15 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $44 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $46 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $22 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $22 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.97 · official $38.14 (match) · 204 history records