Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F0 0xf060…fc59 sports 675 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$305 (-2%) realized −$295 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%200W / 464L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$123
14 days−$257
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$14
other 21% −$558
world 1% +$8
politics 1% −$7
crypto 1% −$13
culture 0% +$7
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +12.1% +1.5% 36% 33% +0.1%
≤30d 262 +8.7% -1.7% 29% 27% -12.1%
≤90d 664 +0.9% -8.7% 30% 29% -14.4%
all 664 +0.9% -8.7% 30% 29% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 29% -14.4%
10% -17.5% 28% -22.6%
15% -25.4% 27% -30.1%
20% -32.8% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$14 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses200 / 464
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions9
Markets (closed)664 / 675
History coverage72d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 664 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 71¢ 66¢ $72 $66 −$6 (-8%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 60¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+8%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 55¢ 58¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $10 +$33 +325%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $27 −$27 -99%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $26 +$67 +263%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$2 -12%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $25 −$1 -5%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$73 +1418%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$40 +365%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Anthony Elanga: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 +$17 +114%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 +$25 +164%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$29 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $15 +$79 +515%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $34 +$24 +70%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$12 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13 +$41 +307%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$13 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 55¢ $17 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $73 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 23¢ $10 14h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 14¢ $5 14h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 12¢ $5 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $13 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $49 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $25 19h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $27 19h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $9 19h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 20h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 27¢ $26 27h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Alex Santino Nunez 7¢ $10 27h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 27¢ $13 27h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 46¢ $24 27h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 27h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $25 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 42h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 46h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 46h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $15 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 47h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 9¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 20¢ $5 2d
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Peter Buldorini 13¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.21 · official $143.41 (match) · 1504 history records