Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:49:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F0 0xf05d…87df other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$23 (+30%) realized +$25 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+45.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+60.4%	+45.1%	100%	100%	+42.3%
≤30d	2	+60.4%	+45.1%	100%	100%	+42.3%
≤90d	2	+60.4%	+45.1%	100%	100%	+42.3%
all	2	+60.4%	+45.1%	100%	100%	+42.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+45.1%	100%	+42.3%
10%	+31.2%	100%	+28.7%
15%	+18.6%	100%	+16.2%
20%	+6.9%	50%	+4.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized+$25

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)	FURIA	64¢	61¢	$37	$35	−$2 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$25	+$12	+48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$15	+$10	+72%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)	BUY FURIA	64¢	$37	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$37	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$25	27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.64 · official $34.64 (match) · 6 history records