Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf05c…dbdc sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$313 (-15%) realized −$439 · open +$126
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%29W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$368
14 days−$349
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$85
other 29% −$78
crypto 3% −$50
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +34.0% +21.3% 43% 43% -29.8%
≤30d 69 +43.9% +30.2% 42% 42% -28.7%
≤90d 69 +43.9% +30.2% 42% 42% -28.7%
all 69 +43.9% +30.2% 42% 42% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.2% 42% -28.7%
10% +17.7% 42% -35.5%
15% +6.3% 42% -41.7%
20% -4.1% 35% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized−$439
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses29 / 40
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions14
Markets (closed)69 / 84
History coverage14d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 71¢ $200 $296 +$96 (+48%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 76¢ $99 $131 +$32 (+32%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Yes 44¢ 24¢ $10 $5 −$4 (-44%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$13 +1290%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +874%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 +$34 +220%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $203 +$212 +104%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $173 −$170 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $4 +$14 +344%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $8 +$20 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 +$12 +61%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$10 +206%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 9h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 9h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $1 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes $1 16h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $5 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 37h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $203 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $574.13 · official $449.49 · 159 history records