Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf05b…c2ae sports 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$106 (+1%) realized +$78 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%47W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,164
7 days−$1,105
14 days−$392
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$203
crypto 32% −$888
other 5% −$129
politics 1% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -47.2% -52.2% 25% 25% -79.6%
≤30d 29 -2.6% -11.8% 34% 34% -11.9%
≤90d 152 -25.0% -32.2% 23% 23% -17.5%
all 164 -13.9% -22.1% 29% 29% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 29% -13.1%
10% -29.6% 27% -21.4%
15% -36.4% 26% -29.0%
20% -42.6% 26% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$91 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses47 / 117
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions5
Markets (closed)164 / 170
History coverage104d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 44¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 20¢ 22¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $21 +$6 (+42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $451 −$442 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $153 −$150 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $277 −$272 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$101 +165%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $144 +$842 +587%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $122 +$211 +172%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$106 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $122 +$97 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$398 +388%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $102 +$98 +97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $607 +$395 +65%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 27 $506 −$498 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $265 −$260 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $406 +$410 +101%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 23 $62 −$60 -98%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 May 14 $34 −$33 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $407 +$618 +152%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 13 $64 −$63 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 13 $174 −$172 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $204 −$204 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $305 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $41 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 31¢ $451 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $153 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $277 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $203 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 100¢ $100 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $61 7d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $122 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $109 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $51 10d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 47¢ $102 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 33¢ $102 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $102 14d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 55¢ $122 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $102 17d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $102 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 60¢ $607 22d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $61 25d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $506 25d
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Cavaliers 29¢ $102 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.27 · official $420.41 · 352 history records