Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F0 0xf05b…c774 weather 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate82%128W / 29L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$58
sports 0% −$4
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 107 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 3% -9.4%
all 157 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 7% -9.1%
10% -16.7% 7% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 6% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses128 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage114d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 1? Jun 02 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 31? Jun 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29? May 30 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 26? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 25? May 26 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24? May 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 23? May 24 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22? May 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 20? May 21 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 20? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17? May 20 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 16? May 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 15? May 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 43°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 12? May 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 11? May 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 11? May 11 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 10? May 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on May 9? May 10 $96 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on May 8? May 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 7? May 08 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $101 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $101 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $89 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $99 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $99 18d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $58 19d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $41 19d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $98 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $99 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $98 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $98 22d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $98 24d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $98 25d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $98 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $65 27d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or higher on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.70 · official $101.70 (match) · 309 history records