Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:37:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf057…f531 sports 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$360 (+3%) realized +$366 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%79W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$397
crypto 1% −$84
other 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.3% -38.8% 33% 33% -12.8%
≤30d 30 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 50% +1.6%
≤90d 113 -2.4% -11.7% 65% 54% -7.9%
all 122 -1.3% -10.7% 65% 55% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 55% -7.6%
10% -19.2% 42% -16.4%
15% -27.1% 30% -24.5%
20% -34.2% 21% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$53 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$366
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses79 / 43
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage233d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner 9z 65¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 54¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $76 +$62 +81%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 +$30 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$44 +87%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $27 +$15 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 24 $56 −$53 -95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $232 +$127 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $51 +$15 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $111 +$20 +18%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $61 +$32 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship May 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 18 $6 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 18 $248 +$53 +21%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $116 +$83 +71%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $108 −$105 -97%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $51 +$34 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $181 −$180 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $150 +$32 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $151 +$36 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 01 $101 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 29 $403 +$110 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $10 −$8 -78%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $201 +$61 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $150 +$21 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $100 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $148 +$43 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $263 +$34 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $30 +$18 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $10 11m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $14 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $11 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $15 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 91¢ $57 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 90¢ $57 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $30 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $63 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $17 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $17 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $20 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $28 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $20 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $6 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 62¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.66 · official $13.66 (match) · 377 history records