Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F0 0xf056…e159 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$26 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$29
finance 30% −$17
other 23% −$10
crypto 7% +$14
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.5% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 3 -28.3% -35.1% 67% 33% -8.3%
≤90d 11 -12.4% -20.7% 55% 27% -11.8%
all 11 -12.4% -20.7% 55% 27% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 27% -11.8%
10% -28.3% 18% -20.3%
15% -35.2% 0% -28.0%
20% -41.6% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage160d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $165 $169 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 27¢ 18¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 +$1 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $136 +$14 +11%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $135 +$14 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 16 $64 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 16 $290 +$5 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $257 −$40 -15%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $224 −$8 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? May 07 $159 +$41 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $39 +$12 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $166 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $136 30d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 27¢ $22 30d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 30d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 75¢ $149 30d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $21 32d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $308 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 90¢ $63 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 98¢ $295 35d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 67¢ $35 38d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 67¢ $3 38d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 67¢ $3 38d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 67¢ $93 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 91¢ $64 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 96¢ $290 44d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 45d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $83 45d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $43 45d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $51 45d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY No 80¢ $87 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY No 80¢ $72 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 62¢ $62 86d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 93d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 93d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 93d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 93d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 93d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 93d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.79 · official $499.79 (match) · 229 history records