Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf055…9c0f other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$3
world 26% $0
politics 18% +$1
crypto 8% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.3%
all 38 +0.5% -9.0% 53% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage442d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 28 $3 $0 +13%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.2-1.6m opening weekend? May 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 10 $19 $0 -0%
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday? May 09 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 09 $24 −$4 -16%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $32 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $32 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $16 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 14d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $5 355d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 97¢ $5 356d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 357d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 361d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 361d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 361d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 361d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $7 361d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $6 361d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $12 364d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 364d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 366d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $13 367d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $13 367d
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 98¢ $13 367d
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 98¢ $13 367d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.51 · official $31.52 (match) · 115 history records