Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F0 0xf054…23be other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$25
politics 22% −$4
sports 5% −$27
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -3.2% -12.4% 11% 8% -9.8%
all 101 -3.2% -12.4% 11% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 8% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 8% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage84d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $107 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $73 $0 +1%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $170 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $517 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $166 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 03 $176 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $384 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $363 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 10 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $107 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 18h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 23h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $36 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $73 25d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $176 29d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $176 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.24 · official $107.24 (match) · 287 history records