Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F0 0xf054…e912 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$117 (+47%) realized +$117 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day18.6pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+27.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+40.3%	+27.0%	59%	59%	+34.9%
≤30d	22	+40.3%	+27.0%	59%	59%	+34.9%
≤90d	22	+40.3%	+27.0%	59%	59%	+34.9%
all	22	+40.3%	+27.0%	59%	59%	+34.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+27.0%	59%	+34.9%
10%	+14.8%	55%	+22.0%
15%	+3.7%	55%	+10.2%
20%	-6.4%	50%	-0.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +46% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.7 per $1 lost it wins $4.7

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$117

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage2d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day18.6

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	50¢	48¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$6	+55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$10	+$16	+158%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Jun 17	$10	+$29	+281%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$1	-6%
Spread: Norway (-3.5)	Jun 17	$50	+$11	+21%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	−$3	-52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+48%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$2	+$4	+180%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$7	+65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	+$12	+117%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$4	−$2	-53%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	+$4	+190%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	+$4	+180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$3	-63%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$46	+$28	+61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$11	+106%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$7	+$7	+99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	SELL Argentina	90¢	$39	1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	BUY Argentina	23¢	$10	2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	24¢	$5	3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	24¢	$4	3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	38¢	$10	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$2	5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	5h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	23¢	$2	7h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	35¢	$2	7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	23h
Spread: Norway (-3.5)	BUY Iraq	82¢	$50	23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	48¢	$17	25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	43¢	$22	27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	33¢	$10	27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	66¢	$6	28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$6	29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$37	31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	46¢	$37	32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$46	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.90 · official $19.90 (match) · 52 history records