Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf054…eae7 sports 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,435 (+5%) realized +$26,373 · open −$1,938
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%129W / 102L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$2,196per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8,340est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,149
7 days−$797
14 days−$4,750
30 days−$46,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$14,879
other 0% −$964
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.1% -15.1% 56% 56% -16.9%
≤30d 130 -11.5% -20.0% 45% 44% -21.5%
≤90d 231 +9.3% -1.1% 56% 48% -6.7%
all 231 +9.3% -1.1% 56% 48% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 48% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 43% -15.6%
15% -19.2% 40% -23.8%
20% -27.1% 35% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,009) neutral
Persistence
early +45% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,003 vs −$2,378 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$26,373
Unrealized−$1,938
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses129 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$8,340
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage68d
Avg bet$2,196
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 43¢ 0¢ $1,941 $2 −$1,938 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,912 +$1,111 +38%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $998 +$1,608 +161%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $957 +$347 +36%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $786 +$171 +22%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,119 −$1,089 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $74 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$35 +88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,483 −$1,450 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,494 −$1,459 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,222 −$1,201 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,278 −$1,250 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,034 −$2,985 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $494 −$481 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,994 −$2,952 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $4,693 +$2,142 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,352 +$368 +27%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,959 +$1,366 +46%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,105 −$2,064 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,941 +$3,123 +161%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,528 −$2,469 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,564 +$1,939 +124%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,785 +$789 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $797 +$989 +124%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $658 +$139 +21%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,014 −$989 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $487 −$476 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $103 −$100 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $627 −$616 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $391 +$825 +211%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $250 +$141 +56%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $484 −$477 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $199 +$286 +144%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1,992 −$1,948 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1,014 −$991 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $4,990 −$4,880 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $5,921 −$5,764 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $2,949 −$2,870 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2,207 +$1,663 +75%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5,736 −$5,619 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $2,012 −$1,954 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2,491 −$2,445 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3,933 +$8,511 +216%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $2,415 −$2,348 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3,012 +$1,849 +61%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $3,786 −$3,735 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2,545 +$1,774 +70%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2,443 −$2,400 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $3,255 −$3,197 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2,290 +$949 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $9,503 +$4,806 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $757 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $1,226 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $3,983 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 71¢ $2,912 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $2,606 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $998 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $1,304 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 72¢ $957 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 99¢ $957 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 80¢ $786 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,119 11h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 20¢ $74 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $74 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 25¢ $1,483 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $1,494 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 40¢ $1,222 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 25¢ $1,278 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 45¢ $1,474 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 13¢ $494 9d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 36¢ $996 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 61¢ $1,998 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 45¢ $1,560 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $6,766 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 67¢ $4,693 10d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner SELL GamerLegion 63¢ $1,720 10d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 48¢ $1,352 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $4,325 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 67¢ $2,959 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 50¢ $2,105 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $2.27 (match) · 885 history records