Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf053…add0 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$159 (+37%) realized +$159 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$168
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$17
other 47% +$172
finance 5% −$10
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.5% +44.3% 67% 67% +40.1%
≤30d 3 +59.5% +44.3% 67% 67% +40.1%
≤90d 8 +40.3% +26.9% 62% 62% +32.7%
all 8 +40.3% +26.9% 62% 62% +32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.9% 62% +32.7%
10% +14.8% 62% +20.0%
15% +3.7% 62% +8.4%
20% -6.5% 62% -2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$24 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage58d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $153 +$119 +78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $8 +$5 +64%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 12 $69 −$58 -83%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Seri May 12 $25 +$40 +158%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records