Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf04f…4da0 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-32%) realized −$10 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-76.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -74.5% -76.9% 20% 20% -69.2%
≤30d 5 -74.5% -76.9% 20% 20% -69.2%
≤90d 5 -74.5% -76.9% 20% 20% -69.2%
all 5 -74.5% -76.9% 20% 20% -69.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.9% 20% -69.2%
10% -79.1% 0% -72.1%
15% -81.1% 0% -74.8%
20% -83.0% 0% -77.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 −$28 -91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 5¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $25 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.19 (match) · 8 history records