Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf04c…bdf3
sports · 66 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$182 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$188 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$83
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)58 / 66
History coverage200d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 8 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$40
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 62¢ 61¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 56¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 50¢ 48¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Johnson 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Hawks Hawks 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bears vs. Packers Bears 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand New Zealand 10¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brentford win on 2025-12-06? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Celtics Pistons 59¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Pimblett 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Yes 62¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$15 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 −$6 -80%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $50 −$49 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $10 +$11 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $27 +$25 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $20 +$11 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $20 +$17 +84%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $75 −$72 -96%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $70 −$40 -57%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 22 $9 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 22 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 22 $1 $0 -9%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $20 +$2 +9%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $20 +$9 +45%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Kraken vs. Ducks Dec 23 $70 −$6 -9%
Blue Jackets vs. Kings Dec 23 $70 −$49 -70%
Ducks vs. Rangers Dec 16 $100 +$108 +108%
Panthers vs. Lightning Dec 16 $100 −$95 -95%
UFC 323: Dawson vs. Torres (Lightweight, Prelims) Dec 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Red Wings vs. Flames Dec 14 $40 +$35 +88%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $120 +$102 +85%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 11 $60 +$76 +127%
Panthers vs. Utah Dec 11 $40 −$4 -10%
Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 10 $60 +$37 +61%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Dec 08 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bears vs. Packers Dec 07 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $11 +$9 +82%
UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims) Dec 07 $10 +$9 +92%
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $10 +$4 +43%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $7 +$23 +330%
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Dec 07 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Brentford win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 06 $32 +$28 +87%
Nuggets vs. Pacers Dec 04 $20 +$4 +22%
Pistons vs. Bucks Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% −$72
other 24% −$23
crypto 4% −$23
politics 4% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $10 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 70¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 62¢ $20 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $15 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $10 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 41h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 3¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 14¢ $7 5d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 62¢ $50 5d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Gabriel Bonfim 100¢ $53 7d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai SELL Brendan Allen 99¢ $31 7d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 63¢ $20 7d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Bryce Mitchell 99¢ $37 7d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $7 8d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $20 8d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 53¢ $20 8d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Édgar Cháirez 48¢ $10 8d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 4¢ $5 41d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $10 41d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 6¢ $5 41d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 8¢ $10 41d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 8¢ $21 41d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 13¢ $23 41d
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 7¢ $4 98d
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 7¢ $2 98d
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 7¢ $5 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -24.9% -32.0% 33% 33% -60.8%
≤30d 7 +37.6% +24.5% 71% 71% +5.2%
≤90d 8 +20.4% +8.9% 62% 62% -29.2%
all 58 -13.3% -21.6% 40% 38% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 38% -19.4%
10% -29.1% 34% -27.1%
15% -35.9% 34% -34.2%
20% -42.2% 31% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.07 · official $83.08 (match) · 125 history records