Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf045…c619 weather 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$434 (-5%) realized −$400 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%63W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$392
14 days−$516
30 days−$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$475
crypto 4% +$11
sports 3% −$99
other 0% −$30
tech 0% −$7
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 39% -16.9%
≤30d 185 -7.0% -15.9% 34% 34% -16.0%
≤90d 185 -7.0% -15.9% 34% 34% -16.0%
all 185 -7.0% -15.9% 34% 34% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 34% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 31% -24.0%
15% -31.3% 30% -31.4%
20% -38.0% 29% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$40 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized−$400
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses63 / 122
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions25
Markets (closed)185 / 210
History coverage17d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? No 89¢ 92¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? No 87¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $35 $37 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? No 90¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? No 65¢ 56¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? No 85¢ 68¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? Yes 65¢ 93¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 19? No 68¢ 89¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Yes 50¢ 27¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $121 +$38 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $216 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $52 +$113 +218%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $58 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $173 +$83 +48%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$41 +267%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $147 −$144 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$16 +154%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $73 −$70 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $133 −$130 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +359%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $51 +$30 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $92 +$84 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $31 +$55 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$16 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $9 +$20 +215%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$78 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 +$124 +121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $161 −$157 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$80 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $159 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $273 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $112 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 31¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $101 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $66 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $31 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.17 · official $506.18 (match) · 378 history records