Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf040…d015 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$1
world 34% −$8
politics 14% −$2
finance 6% +$23
tech 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 28 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 4% -10.4%
≤90d 42 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 5% -9.0%
all 43 -2.5% -11.8% 30% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -9.4%
10% -20.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage486d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $44 −$4 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $72 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $33 +$2 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $70 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +30%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $2 $0 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $28 −$4 -15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $40 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $36 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $3 $0 -5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $297 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $172 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $136 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $160 +$23 +14%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $94 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Campbell vs. North Carolina A&T Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $2 37h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $4 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $25 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records