Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf03f…17e1 crypto 423 markets active 5d ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,147 (-15%) realized −$3,146 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%108W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$78
14 days−$80
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,961
crypto 48% −$1,743
world 1% +$7
other 0% −$37
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -64.4% -67.8% 24% 24% -61.1%
≤30d 19 -68.1% -71.2% 21% 21% -63.7%
≤90d 41 -55.5% -59.7% 24% 24% -65.9%
all 423 -38.7% -44.6% 26% 21% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.6% 21% -33.4%
10% -49.9% 19% -39.8%
15% -54.7% 17% -45.6%
20% -59.2% 16% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,146
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses108 / 315
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)423 / 423
History coverage246d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 297 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenSea launch a token by the end of 2021? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Will India win? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $8 −$8 -99%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 23 $55 −$46 -85%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $20 −$19 -97%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 20 $14 +$12 +79%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $14 +$7 +46%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 07 $19 −$5 -24%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 06 $11 +$8 +67%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $34 −$34 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 04 $25 +$17 +69%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 04 $1 +$2 +241%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $30 −$29 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 23 $22 −$22 -100%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Feb 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Oman (Game 1) Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Feb 18 $7 −$7 -100%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 17 $52 −$52 -100%
T20 World Cup: Ireland vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 17 $10 −$2 -18%
T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 1328 history records