Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf03c…9878
other · 78 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$127
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 39
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage470d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $57 −$27 -47%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $248 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $40 +$3 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $148 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $108 −$1 -1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $147 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $130 −$9 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $114 +$4 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $267 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $2,309 −$3 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $226 +$5 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $1,167 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $61 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $1,170 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,063 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 02 $11 $0 -2%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $5 +$6 +132%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 30 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $14 $0 +3%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% −$4
other 34% $0
sports 20% +$18
world 8% −$24
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $127 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $9 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $21 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 17¢ $24 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 17¢ $33 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $23 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $76 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $34 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $65 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $43 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $54 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $95 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $92 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $57 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $148 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $148 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 4d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $119 46d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 88¢ $119 46d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 47d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 47d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 47d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 47d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most SELL No 87¢ $107 47d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY No 88¢ $108 48d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $113 48d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 48d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $119 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.7% -16.5% 20% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 5 -7.7% -16.5% 20% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 77 +5.7% -4.3% 49% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 6% -9.6%
10% -13.5% 5% -18.3%
15% -21.9% 5% -26.2%
20% -29.5% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.74 · official $126.74 (match) · 238 history records