Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf03a…1b78 crypto 261 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%137W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$147
14 days+$125
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$106
sports 15% +$41
other 4% +$8
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -9.2% -17.9% 38% 38% +34.2%
≤30d 91 -17.7% -25.6% 42% 40% -13.9%
≤90d 257 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 47% -10.9%
all 257 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 47% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 47% -10.9%
10% -23.2% 40% -19.4%
15% -30.6% 32% -27.2%
20% -37.4% 22% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses137 / 120
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)257 / 261
History coverage42d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 72¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 +$8 +83%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $10 +$26 +252%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $20 +$5 +26%
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Jun 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $31 +$5 +15%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $1 +$7 +712%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$9 +94%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 +$14 +67%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $35 +$31 +88%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$25 +97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 −$3 -51%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 23h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 54¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 37h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 37h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 49¢ $10 38h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) SELL Senegal 97¢ $30 45h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) BUY Senegal 65¢ $20 45h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 46h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 51¢ $35 46h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 43¢ $31 47h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 45¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.27 · official $60.27 (match) · 667 history records