Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf039…7cf1 crypto 750 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,216 (+8%) realized +$1,216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%335W / 415L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day137.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days−$41
14 days+$541
30 days+$734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$715
other 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 41% -10.4%
≤30d 750 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 43% -5.0%
≤90d 750 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 43% -5.0%
all 750 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 43% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 43% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 42% -14.1%
15% -27.5% 41% -22.4%
20% -34.6% 38% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$17 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses335 / 415
Open positions0
Markets (closed)750 / 750
History coverage16d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day137.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 750 Trades
no open positions (400 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$34 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$43 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$73 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$43 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$13 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$32 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$35 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$13 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$13 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$27 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$19 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$38 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $23 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2569 history records