Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf038…bc7a world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-4%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$10
world 28% −$14
sports 17% −$51
politics 15% −$32
finance 2% +$3
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.9% -12.1% 17% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 21 -2.8% -12.1% 24% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 32 -2.0% -11.3% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 56 -13.5% -21.7% 25% 2% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 2% -13.3%
10% -29.2% 2% -21.6%
15% -36.1% 0% -29.2%
20% -42.3% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage548d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $42 −$7 -16%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $43 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $111 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $43 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $51 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $45 +$3 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $37 −$2 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $374 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $162 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $186 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $60 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $42 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $291 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? May 06 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $5 $0 +6%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 25 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $4 −$3 -85%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $5 $0 -4%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? Feb 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ajax Amsterdam beat Union St.-Gilloise? Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Feb 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $40 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $40 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $40 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $40 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 63¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $47 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $48 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $44 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $43 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $40 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $22 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $22 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.85 · official $35.89 (match) · 189 history records