Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F0 0xf037…b589 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+4%) realized +$148 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$328
7 days+$931
14 days+$104
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$42
other 5% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +239.5% +207.1% 100% 100% +194.5%
≤30d 48 +2.2% -7.6% 25% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 48 +2.2% -7.6% 25% 25% -3.8%
all 48 +2.2% -7.6% 25% 25% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 25% -3.8%
10% -16.4% 23% -13.0%
15% -24.5% 23% -21.4%
20% -31.9% 23% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$31 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,569
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions16
Markets (closed)48 / 64
History coverage10d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $38 +$8 +21%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $34 +$66 +197%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $34 +$88 +262%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $34 +$76 +226%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $34 +$88 +262%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $67 +$78 +115%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $34 +$84 +250%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $34 +$186 +550%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$23 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $34 +$110 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $34 +$123 +365%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $34 +$302 +891%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$3 -8%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$4 -12%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $38 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 9d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $31 9d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 9d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 9d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $31 9d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 9d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 9d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 9d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $34 9d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $34 9d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 9d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $34 9d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,569.02 · official $1,569.02 (match) · 80 history records