Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf037…611c crypto 1056 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (373 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$412 (-8%) realized −$415 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate64%672W / 377L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day373.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$17
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$29
other 3% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (373 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 984 -8.7% -17.4% 65% 13% -9.5%
≤30d 1049 -10.5% -19.0% 64% 13% -9.5%
≤90d 1049 -10.5% -19.0% 64% 13% -9.5%
all 1049 -10.5% -19.0% 64% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover373.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 13% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 13% -18.2%
15% -33.8% 12% -26.1%
20% -40.3% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$415
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses672 / 377
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1049 / 1056
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day373.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1049 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+103%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.05 · official $37.04 · 3500 history records