Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf036…5a4b
other · 33 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage436d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 2 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 21¢ 24¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 29¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+203%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $4 +$3 +74%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $18 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 18 $1 $0 -21%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 04 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 03 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$3
politics 27% $0
world 20% +$3
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $8 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $28 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $4 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $33 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $23 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $10 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $32 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 95¢ $14 334d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 95¢ $14 334d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 83¢ $4 334d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 83¢ $10 334d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 83¢ $14 335d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? SELL No 98¢ $14 335d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 98¢ $14 335d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $14 335d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $14 335d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $13 335d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $13 335d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $13 335d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $14 335d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 95¢ $14 335d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 BUY No 95¢ $14 336d
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $14 336d
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $14 336d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $14 336d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $14 336d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 31 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 3% -8.8%
10% -16.5% 3% -17.5%
15% -24.6% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.0% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.08 · official $16.80 (match) · 93 history records