Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf035…0924 sports 1266 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,281 (-3%) realized −$2,256 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%597W / 663L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$561est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,091
other 4% +$407
crypto 1% +$25
tech 0% −$45
finance 0% −$18
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +80.7% +63.5% 50% 50% +46.4%
≤30d 6 +80.7% +63.5% 50% 50% +46.4%
≤90d 469 +0.0% -9.5% 49% 49% -12.8%
all 1260 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 47% -13.2%
10% -20.0% 43% -21.5%
15% -27.8% 40% -29.1%
20% -34.9% 34% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$49 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2,256
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses597 / 663
Est. fees paid−$561
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1260 / 1266
History coverage207d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Los Angeles Thieves 60¢ 35¢ $60 $35 −$25 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $18 +$81 +442%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $15 +$27 +180%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $44 −$43 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 28 $17 +$27 +162%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$9 -98%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 25 $109 −$107 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $66 −$65 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $35 +$65 +188%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $49 +$81 +165%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 25 $27 +$19 +71%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $20 +$10 +52%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $11 +$9 +83%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 24 $29 −$29 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $68 −$67 -99%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship May 24 $53 +$47 +89%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $59 −$58 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $70 +$58 +82%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $38 +$32 +82%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $21 +$17 +82%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $22 −$19 -89%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $21 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) May 24 $80 −$78 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 4 Winner May 24 $35 +$45 +128%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner May 23 $22 +$31 +139%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner May 23 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) May 23 $23 −$22 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 4 Winner May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $33 −$33 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $73 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winn May 23 $44 +$26 +60%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Conquest of Prague May 22 $37 +$11 +29%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $22 +$15 +70%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League M May 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 21 $47 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 21 $33 +$14 +43%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) May 17 $17 −$16 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $6 +$11 +194%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) May 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 17 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win o BUY 8¢ $63 1h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 60¢ $61 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $100 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 18¢ $18 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $42 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 35¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $44 5h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL Paris Gentle Mates 100¢ $44 5h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 38¢ $15 7h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 38¢ $2 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 21¢ $10 7h
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY 11¢ $16 17h
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will DR BUY 5¢ $12 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) AND Colombia vs. BUY 4¢ $20 20h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St BUY Toronto KOI 30¢ $0 24h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St BUY Toronto KOI 30¢ $12 24h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: D BUY 3¢ $10 27h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 33¢ $109 34d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 11¢ $17 34d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 11¢ $6 34d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 33¢ $44 34d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $100 34d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 34¢ $35 34d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 13¢ $20 34d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $130 34d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 37¢ $49 34d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $47 34d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 58¢ $23 34d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $4 34d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $30 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $96.09 · 3245 history records