trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 82¢ | 76¢ | $50 | $46 | −$4 (-7%) |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | Yes | 16¢ | 12¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | No | 45¢ | 16¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-64%) |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+17%) |
| Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 72¢ | 72¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | Yes | 65¢ | 38¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-42%) |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $53 | +$22 | +41% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $20 | −$10 | -50% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 25% | 25% | +4.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 25% | 25% | +4.2% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 25% | 25% | +4.2% |
| all | 4 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 25% | 25% | +4.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.0% | 25% | +4.2% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 25% | -5.8% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 25% | -14.9% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 0% | -23.2% |