Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf02c…3362 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-8%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +9.1% -1.3% 59% 52% -16.8%
≤30d 27 +9.1% -1.3% 59% 52% -16.8%
≤90d 27 +9.1% -1.3% 59% 52% -16.8%
all 27 +9.1% -1.3% 59% 52% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 52% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 41% -24.8%
15% -19.4% 37% -32.1%
20% -27.3% 26% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$61 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $206 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $207 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $418 −$205 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $207 +$158 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $106 −$101 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $229 +$284 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $219 −$218 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$11 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $13 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $141 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.50 · official $6.96 · 70 history records