Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf02c…eb36 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 423d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$252 (+70%) realized +$252 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$276
14 days+$276
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$159
other 36% +$99
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +76.6% +59.8% 57% 57% +102.6%
≤30d 7 +76.6% +59.8% 57% 57% +102.6%
≤90d 7 +76.6% +59.8% 57% 57% +102.6%
all 23 +4.1% -5.8% 48% 39% +54.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 39% +54.6%
10% -14.8% 39% +39.8%
15% -23.1% 35% +26.3%
20% -30.6% 35% +13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +124% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$10 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

423d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage423d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$69 +226%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $20 +$23 +114%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$203 +396%
Will Logan Paul score a TD during Flag Football Classic? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Big Game: Odd/Even Total Points Feb 09 $5 +$6 +110%
Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Big Game: Coin Toss Feb 08 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $15 −$15 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 23 $50 +$12 +23%
Warriors vs. Rockets Jul 21 $1 +$1 +59%
Tom Cruise and Ana de Armas confirmed relationship by April? Jul 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 21 $3 +$5 +163%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Jul 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Will another person be the next Pope? May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $41 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 29d
Will Logan Paul score a TD during Flag Football Classic? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 91d
Big Game: Odd/Even Total Points SELL Even 99¢ $11 131d
Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 131d
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 131d
Big Game: Coin Toss SELL Heads 100¢ $10 132d
Big Game: Coin Toss BUY Heads 51¢ $5 132d
Big Game: Odd/Even Total Points BUY Even 47¢ $5 132d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 132d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $10 133d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 157d
49ers vs. Colts SELL 49ers 100¢ $62 179d
49ers vs. Colts BUY 49ers 81¢ $50 179d
Will another person be the next Pope? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 408d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 95¢ $15 414d
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? BUY No 25¢ $2 416d
Tom Cruise and Ana de Armas confirmed relationship by April? BUY No 100¢ $5 416d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 421d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $5 421d
Warriors vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 63¢ $1 422d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records