Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf02a…4f4b crypto 1254 markets active 5d ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,015 (-1%) realized −$2,015 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate89%1121W / 133L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$626
14 days−$1,239
30 days−$2,804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,988
world 3% −$468
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.8% -22.9% 67% 0% -22.8%
≤30d 135 -5.3% -14.3% 85% 13% -16.5%
≤90d 785 -1.6% -11.0% 88% 29% -12.5%
all 1254 -1.0% -10.4% 89% 31% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 31% -11.5%
10% -19.0% 1% -20.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$109 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,015
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1121 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1254 / 1254
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$124
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1254 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,340 −$468 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$9 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$202 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$16 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$13 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $182 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $203 +$23 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$14 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $200 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $202 +$11 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $203 +$13 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $465 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $275 −$273 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $274 +$33 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $73 +$4 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $190 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $272 +$28 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $302 +$31 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $303 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $307 +$22 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $204 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $205 −$203 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $201 +$40 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $203 +$21 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $206 +$21 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $203 +$11 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $203 +$20 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $204 −$203 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $411 +$42 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $209 −$207 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $199 +$28 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 09 $205 +$25 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $204 +$16 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $202 +$7 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $202 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $204 +$24 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $87 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $23 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $79 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $54 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $148 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $141 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $63 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $32 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $131 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $182 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $194 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $147 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $56 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $179 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $22 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $103 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $200 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $142 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $59 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $92 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $112 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records