Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf029…a292 sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,302 (-36%) realized −$1,302 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$1,486
14 days−$1,486
30 days−$1,486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$271
other 41% −$188
economics 14% −$482
crypto 2% −$28
finance 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -36.9% -43.0% 21% 21% -66.7%
≤30d 48 -36.9% -43.0% 21% 21% -66.7%
≤90d 49 -35.5% -41.7% 22% 22% -66.4%
all 55 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 29% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 29% -37.6%
10% -39.1% 27% -43.6%
15% -45.0% 25% -49.0%
20% -50.4% 18% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$50 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 39
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 63
History coverage284d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $10 +$90 +873%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $15 +$20 +130%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $30 −$1 -4%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $20 +$8 +39%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 26 $6 $0 -6%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $71 −$40 -56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $45 +$41 +90%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$19 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +49%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $61 +$26 +43%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 −$21 -51%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $25 −$13 -52%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Jun 23 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 23 $229 −$229 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $143 −$143 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 Jun 23 $82 +$190 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 03 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $102 +$57 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 70¢ $29 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 72¢ $30 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL 91¢ $28 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY 64¢ $20 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Harr BUY $5 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 22¢ $15 19h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 22¢ $25 19h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY $10 19h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 35¢ $6 34h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 36¢ $6 34h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $20 41h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $51 41h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY 18¢ $9 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 26¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $41 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $42 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 3d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $5 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 98¢ $86 3d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records