Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf029…b1c7 sports 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$658 (+16%) realized +$660 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%103W / 94L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$167
14 days+$645
30 days+$624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$371
other 18% +$170
world 12% +$81
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 49% -3.0%
≤30d 197 -2.8% -12.1% 52% 51% +4.5%
≤90d 197 -2.8% -12.1% 52% 51% +4.5%
all 197 -2.8% -12.1% 52% 51% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 51% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -5.5%
15% -28.2% 35% -14.6%
20% -35.2% 28% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$660
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses103 / 94
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)197 / 199
History coverage19d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 7¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $102 +$136 +134%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $2 +$8 +403%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$17 +50%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$68 +67%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $63 +$64 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $30 +$19 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $93 +$59 +63%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 +$122 +120%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $101 +$65 +65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $38 −$37 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$72 +71%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 $0 +18%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $15 +$8 +52%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$8 +40%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 20 $2 +$1 +26%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $16 +$13 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 20 $23 −$21 -92%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$3 -61%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $2 +$10 +474%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $4 +$2 +57%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $4 −$1 -14%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 +$2 +50%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$4 +69%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 −$1 -29%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +52%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $33 −$30 -92%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $4 −$2 -44%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $4 −$2 -47%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $5 −$1 -26%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +31%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $59 +$24 +40%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$1 -27%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $10 41m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $30 41m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $30 41m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $30 42m
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $31 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 43¢ $10 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 6h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 19¢ $2 7h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 13h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 13h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $10 46h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $30 46h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $30 46h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $30 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $3 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $30 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $30 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $30 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.24 · official $100.24 (match) · 718 history records