Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F0 0xf028…c587 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,697 (+1%) realized +$1,698 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%31W / 96L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$939per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$96
politics 31% −$46
sports 9% +$1,770
economics 3% $0
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$2
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 +2.5% -7.2% 9% 4% -7.6%
all 127 +2.5% -7.2% 24% 13% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 13% -8.3%
10% -16.1% 13% -17.1%
15% -24.2% 10% -25.1%
20% -31.7% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$1,312) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$7 · ×10.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,103
Realized+$1,698
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses31 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage155d
Avg bet$939
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $677 $677 −$0 (-0%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $426 $426 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $912 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,291 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,940 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,819 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,416 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,469 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $602 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $805 +$1 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,824 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,759 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $2,192 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,697 −$2 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $1,374 +$717 +52%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $1,345 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $2,622 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,747 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,462 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,872 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,816 −$3 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 10 $1,324 +$1,234 +93%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,820 −$2 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $2,159 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $3,309 −$3 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 24 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 22 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 22 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $2,109 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $426 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $677 7h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $910 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $912 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $979 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $980 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,022 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,023 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $944 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $946 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $923 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $925 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $809 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $810 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,491 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,493 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,691 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,692 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,635 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,638 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,229 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,231 15d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $559 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $560 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $895 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $897 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,103.00 · official $1,103.00 (match) · 403 history records